Analysts at HSBC noted that metals prices are broadly in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities and strong structural demand. Aluminum rose more than 25% year-to-date on the London Metal Exchange, reaching levels not seen since 2022. Cash aluminum contracts were trading at a premium of over $116 per ton above three-month futures — the biggest gap since 2007, signaling extreme tightness in near-term supply.

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper price forecast by more than 10%, while Citigroup described aluminum as facing its most bullish supply-demand conditions in at least half a century. With supply shrinking faster than demand weakens, prices continue to rise despite broader economic uncertainty — a dynamic that industry observers say is historically rare.