The global lender's outlook reflects ongoing tight supplies — particularly for aluminum and copper — combined with what it describes as robust industrial demand. Copper is also expected to see strong price gains, underpinned by a structural shortage of refined supply. The International Copper Study Group has separately forecast a global refined copper deficit of roughly 150,000 metric tons in 2026, creating a secondary squeeze across the power generation and distribution sectors.

The World Bank also noted that aluminum, nickel, tin, and copper are all expected to see the largest price increases among base metals over 2026–2027, with copper and tin — both essential for clean-energy technologies — projected to reach new record highs in nominal US dollar terms. These forecasts assume persistent supply constraints that are expected to keep markets relatively tight through 2027.